Iran 'keeps its options open' by linking retaliation with Gaza cease-fire

Citing three senior Iranian officials, Reuters reported on Tuesday that only a cease-fire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil.

Analysts said if the Reuters report is accurate, Iran, by linking the potential retaliation against Israel and the Gaza cease-fire negotiations, is keeping its options open.

When asked whether China was in direct or indirect contact with Iran regarding its retaliatory actions, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Wednesday that China has been calling for international efforts to bring an early end to the conflict in Gaza as soon as possible and prevent further spillover. China plays an active role in easing regional tensions. 

"We support all efforts that contribute to permanent and comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza, and will work with the international community to deescalate the situation and avoid further escalation of the conflict and confrontation," Lin said.

Iran has been preparing for potential retaliation against Israel, but it is also waiting for the right timing and assessing the optimal method of the attack, Sun Degang, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

"If Iran were to retaliate against Israel at this moment, it would bear a heavy diplomatic burden, as the retaliation could undermine the ongoing cease-fire negotiations in Gaza," Sun said.

"Under this circumstance, if the cease-fire negotiations do not yield results, or if Israel makes further military strikes against Hezbollah or Hamas, Iran's retaliation against Israel would be seen as more justified," he said.

According to Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, by linking the potential retaliation against Israel and the Gaza cease-fire negotiations, Iran is keeping its options open.

Reaching an agreement on Thursday is extremely challenging due to the substantial disparities in the basic understandings of the negotiations between Hamas and Israel, Liu told the Global Times on Wednesday, as Hamas is eager to move forward with the implementation of the existing agreement, whereas Israel is adamant about reopening negotiations.

In comments published on Tuesday, US Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake confirmed that Washington is asking allies to "help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions," Reuters said. However, on the same day, the US State Department approved potential weapons sales to Israel totaling roughly $20 billion, including an anticipated sale of up to 50 F-15 fighter jets valued at more than $18 billion, according to CNN.

The US is sending a clear message to Israel that it is a steadfast protector, while at the same time, the US is working to deter Iran from initiating any significant retaliation on Israel that could potentially draw the US directly into the conflict, experts said.

Sun said. "It is precisely the US' indulgence that has led to the tragedy in Gaza today. The US is the true instigator behind this crisis," he said.